Timing the grain markets through the understanding of cycles.
Identifying the major trends that bring you the most profitable opportunities.
making the complex understandable
Grain Market Timing
There is a significant risk of loss in trading Futures & Options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
"The Future is a Repetition of the Past"
W.D. Gann made this statement many years ago. For decades it has been considered so ridiculous as to disqualify Gann from serious consideration. After all how can future market behavior not only be related to the past, but actually be "repeating" something that happened so many years ago? This section will demonstrate that present market behavior is actually repeating past market behavior. We will draw on the previous lessons and the reader will see why the initial concepts were necessary. To appreciate this revolutionary idea one must view the markets quite differently than what conventional thinking often accepts. Hopefully, the reader is prepared to accept the revolutionary claims made by a man that lived a century ago. Gann took the advice of the Bible, that "precept must be upon precept". We have done the same, laying the groundwork through out this presentation.
At this point in the analysis one should begin to understand that the true nature of the markets is quite different than what is commonly accepted. The motions of time and price are so intimately connected that one should expect some predictability. It is obvious that TIME repeats on the circle over and over. Every year the earth repeats its motion thru its orbit. Maybe we should expect PRICE to experience some of those same characteristics.
For hundreds of years, mankind has lived under the assumption that markets behave in a random manner. It was not conceivable that the result of human beings buying and selling could produce a repeatable nature. In the first half of the 20th century a man named W.D. Gann exhibited evidence that it was more than possible to predict market activity. He gave numerous examples to prove it. We are now ready to illustrate a revolutionary assertion made by Gann in 1909....... "The future is a repetition of the past". To illustrate this concept let us now compare two distinct bull campaigns. As we progress thru this example, keep in mind that these two time periods are separated by 36 years!
The campaigns to be examined are those starting in December 1975 and December 2011. The time and price measurements of the 1975 move have already been discussed. That campaign saw a rise of 636 cents, followed by a decline that ended on September 13, 1977 defining the entire move (up and down) as 637 days. It was noted that the movement of 636 in both time and price can be reduced to 276 degrees on the circle (636 = 360 + 276).
Please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org 402-768-2670
1975 - 1977
The reader may be thinking "but why did the September 13 date produce a low in 1977 and a top in 2012." Space does not allow for a complete explanation at this point of our tutorial, nor have we introduced all the concepts necessary to answer this question. However, to point the reader in the right direction, notice where the market bottoms in the following spring after the 2012 high. After supporting near $13.52 for some time, soybeans make an important low on April 25, 2013. Notice the date of this low, namely April 25. This is the date where the HIGH was made in 1977. In 1977 the top was at the April date and the low at the September turn. After the 2011 low, this scenario was reversed when the top was made at the September date and the low on the April date.
same place on circle as $10.76
Now let's compare the 1975 market to action that occurred much more recently. In 2011 nearby Soybeans made an important low on December 15, just like it did in 1975. From here prices would climb all the way to a new all time high of $17.95 on September 4, 2012. 10 days later a last gasp top occurred. It was this September 14th date where the deferred contracts made their extreme top. The time from December 15, 2011 low up to the September 14, 2012 top is 273 days. You will immediately notice that this is the same as the 276 degrees during the 1975 move (the 1975 move had an extra 360 degrees). This is obvious as even the dates of the year are the same (December 15 to September 13 in both cases). Let us now examine price. The top of September 4, 2012 was $17.95 . Compare this with the price of the 1977 top of $10.76. These two prices are separated by almost exactly 720 degrees or 2 cycles around the circle. This means that they occupy the same place on the circle. From our previous discussion we have learned to model price as traveling around the circle of 360 degrees. As you can see, this understanding allows one to discern that the $10.76 top in 1977 was repeated almost exactly with the top of $17.95 in 2012 as both campaigns rallied to the exact same place on the circle. History repeated almost perfectly as the market rallied to the same place on the circle. It is amazing to realize that even during the most explosive moves, markets will repeat to the exact cent.
What's more, the earth reaches the position of 1795 (1076) on September 14. This means that time was meeting price at this all time high, just as it did at the December 15, 1975 low of $4.40.